Marc Gerstein

Marc Gerstein is an unconventional "quant." He has long specialized in rules- and factor-based equity-investing strategies. And he authored two books on stock screening – Screening the Market and The Value Connection. Marc's quant inclinations trace back to his early days as an attorney (mainly criminal and landlord-tenant proceedings). In that world, everything Marc did had to be supported by evidence or legal authority. He first applied this evidence-oriented approach at Value Line, an independent investment-research firm that he joined in 1980. There, he learned to relate human investment stories to that company's "Timeliness" ranking system. During the mid-1980s, Marc managed the Value Line Aggressive Income Trust. That's a high-yield ("junk") bond open-end mutual fund. He steered the fund through the Drexel Burnham scandals and the related junk-bond storms. He came away from that experience with a non-academic but highly reality-based understanding of risk.

Earnings Estimates Are Way Too High for a Recession

We’re heading into “one of the most anticipated recessions of all time”… Or maybe not. Bloomberg surveyed more than 500 Wall Street strategists to kick off the new year. And the news service concluded that we should expect “fresh pain for investors” in 2023. But not everyone got the memo apparently… As I’ll explain today, …

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You Can Love the Story and Still Hate the Stock

Whether you like it or not, Elon Musk is one of the world’s great visionaries… Sure, he wasn’t the first person to dream of vehicles that run on electricity rather than gasoline. But with Tesla (TSLA), he’s the one turning the dream into reality… Over the past decade or so, Musk started making electric cars …

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It’s Not Value or Growth… It’s Both

Stop what you’re doing… Before you do anything else, search “value investing” on the Internet. Then, go to almost any financial website that pops up. I bet they all include a sentence like… Value investors buy stocks priced below what they’re really worth. Now, this idea might sound simple. But some supposedly smart people just …

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The Stimulus Checks Are Gone… Americans Spent It All

Almost three years ago, the COVID-19 pandemic crippled the economy… Public venues shut down and our borders closed to try to prevent the virus from spreading. All the major sports leagues stopped playing. And all types of travel stopped operating. Folks couldn’t spend on flights, cruises, or other fun activities. So in turn, they hunkered …

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Be Patient as the Fed Fixes Its ‘Communist’ Policy

The Federal Reserve’s special power is convoluted… As history shows us, the Fed’s interest-rate hikes almost always precede financial calamity. And yes, we all know how much rates have risen since the central bank started using this weapon to attack out-of-control inflation last year. The benchmark federal-funds rate now sits in a targeted range between …

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Don’t Feel Guilty if You Like Homebuilder Stocks Today

The next year looks bleak for homebuilders’ coffers… In 2023, Wall Street analysts expect 20 of the 24 publicly traded homebuilders we track to see earnings declines. That’s more than 80% of the group. It’s a stark contrast to Wall Street’s expectations for business in general… Analysts forecast lower earnings for just 21% of S&P …

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It’s Easy to Build a Smarter Market

John Bogle built a naysaying empire… In 1974, Bogle launched Vanguard. As the decades passed, the company grew into a financial-management titan. And its pioneering approach to investing buoyed its success… I’m talking about “indexing.” Put simply, indexers don’t think investors can consistently make good choices with their own money. They don’t believe folks can …

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How to Follow an Investment ‘Tough Guy’

Broad shoulders… puffed-out chest… and completely in charge of the situation. Most of us have imagined ourselves in the shoes of the “tough guy” at one time or another. But in investing, it’s a different story… That’s because tough-guy investing is a road to ruin for most of us. It takes serious monetary muscle to …

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This Tech Giant Fails the ‘Groucho Marx Test’ Today

Groucho Marx allegedly once quit an elite club with a telegram… PLEASE ACCEPT MY RESIGNATION. I DON’T WANT TO BELONG TO ANY CLUB THAT WILL ACCEPT PEOPLE LIKE ME AS A MEMBER. Now, I said “allegedly” because Marx was a comedic genius. And it’s clear that he told many different versions of the story over …

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