Marc Gerstein

Marc Gerstein is an unconventional "quant." He has long specialized in rules- and factor-based equity-investing strategies. And he authored two books on stock screening – Screening the Market and The Value Connection. Marc's quant inclinations trace back to his early days as an attorney (mainly criminal and landlord-tenant proceedings). In that world, everything Marc did had to be supported by evidence or legal authority. He first applied this evidence-oriented approach at Value Line, an independent investment-research firm that he joined in 1980. There, he learned to relate human investment stories to that company's "Timeliness" ranking system. During the mid-1980s, Marc managed the Value Line Aggressive Income Trust. That's a high-yield ("junk") bond open-end mutual fund. He steered the fund through the Drexel Burnham scandals and the related junk-bond storms. He came away from that experience with a non-academic but highly reality-based understanding of risk.

Mr. Market Is Still Emotional… But He’s Not as Crazy

If you’re familiar with Warren Buffett and Ben Graham, then you likely know “Mr. Market”… The mythic being came to life in 1949 in Chapter 8 of Graham’s classic book The Intelligent Investor. And he has matured over the past 72 years through Buffett’s repeated references. One thing is clear… Mr. Market is emotionally volatile. …

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We’re at the End of the ‘Dr. Doom’ Era

Believe it or not, signs of economic slowing were once viewed as bad news for stocks. But “Dr. Doom” changed that with one legendary prediction on August 17, 1982… You see, former Salomon Brothers Chief Economist Henry Kaufman – known by the nickname “Dr. Doom” – had previously projected that deficit spending and a strong …

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To Err Is Human… To Learn Is Divine

Over the years, Warren Buffett has said many great things about his investing principles. But the legendary investor’s best quote might be about one of his biggest blunders… I’m talking about his early 1990s investment in USAir. In his 1994 letter to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) shareholders, Buffett simply attributed the blunder to “a case of …

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Do This When the World Is on Fire

I’m not even finished reading it yet, but I’ve found a new favorite investment book… It’s Alexander Hamilton, published in 2004 by author Ron Chernow. Now, I know what you’re probably thinking… “But Marc, that’s a biography.” Yes, it’s true… Chernow is a Pulitzer Prize-winning biographer. And this particular book served as the inspiration for …

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Using Our ‘Power Gauge’ to Assess Risk

You’d think established measures of risk would meet a basic rule of investment prudence… But they don’t. The indicators are based on data showing how volatile a stock was in the past. So as a result, they only work if you assume that past performance guarantees future results. That’s a bad assumption… I detailed why …

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Why It’s Risky to Use Traditional Risk Statistics

Stop me if you’ve heard this before… Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It’s easy to support recommendations with pretty performance charts and impressive statistical studies. But no amount of mathematical analysis or graphic artistry can get around the fact that companies, markets, and the world can change. So as investors, we’re primed …

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A Major Acquisition Adds Comfort to This REIT’s 5.7% Yield

My wife and I bicker about real estate… She wants to buy a house in New York City to earn rental income. I’m afraid to own just a single property for that purpose… If the tenant can’t (or won’t) pay rent, we’d be in trouble. This is especially worrisome in New York, where we live… …

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Naïve Pigs Get Slaughtered… Prudent Hogs Make Money

Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered… That’s the No. 1 rule of investing, according to former hedge-fund manager and CNBC commentator Jim Cramer. And countless others have recited the old saying over the years. (See, for example, here and here.) But today, I’m going to show you why that’s not always …

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The First Step in Becoming a ‘Prudent Yield Hog’

Don’t underestimate pig smarts… Purdue University’s Dr. Candace Croney once taught pigs to play video games. And the University of Bristol’s Dr. Michael Mendl showed that pigs can deceive one another. In short, pigs aren’t as dumb as you might first believe… They can think and learn. The humble pig even found praise in the …

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I Love This Company’s Sandwiches, But Not Its Stock

If you’ve never eaten at a Potbelly Sandwich Shop, you’re missing out… A colleague introduced me to the Chicago-based fast-casual restaurant chain during a business trip to the city years ago. At first, I balked at the long line… I just wanted to get a quick bite to eat. But I’m glad we were patient. …

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