These days, the housing market isn’t working for anyone…
If you’re a buyer, it’s an impossible situation. Home prices are at all-time highs. And affordability is near an all-time time low.
If you’re a seller, there’s a market… but it’s slow. If you sell, then there’s the question of where you go next. You also have the problem of how much more to pay for less home.
And if you’re a realtor, the recent settlement of a class action lawsuit means your commissions could fall up to 50%. Other than realtors, few people will probably feel bad about this. But it only adds to the misery in the industry.
But the real issue is that there simply aren’t enough houses. And along with that, there aren’t enough places to build them, people to build them, or materials to build them with.
It’s an even bigger mess when you factor in interest rates, demographics, and zoning. And the situation will probably be like this for a long time.
But as with most messes this huge, there’s always an investing opportunity. And in the housing market, it all comes down to supply and demand…
Housing still hasn’t recovered from the pandemic. After the crisis ended, we all left the house more… but housing is still locked in.
When the pandemic hit, prices spiked. Since then, they’ve only continued to go up. According to the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, the average home price in the U.S. is up about 50% since January 2020.
As the price of everything went up, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage went from less than 4% in 2020 to almost 8% in 2023. You can see the big spike in the chart below…
This became a one-two punch for the market…
Buyers got “sticker shock” and sat on the sidelines.
Sellers loved that prices were up. But because of high rates, most of them couldn’t afford to move.
In 2023, sales of existing homes fell to their lowest level in about three decades.
Now, interest rates are on their way down. But they’re only getting close to where they could make a difference.
Today, nearly 90% of homes in the U.S. still have mortgages with an interest rate of less than 6%.
And as rates get close to that level, that will bring some buyers back in. But the downside is that lower rates might even make things worse – at least in the short term.
That’s because the inventory of houses for sale is still near historical lows. And as declining rates bring new buyers in, what few houses are available should go fast.
So the market might be back to square one sooner than later. As baseball legend Yogi Berra famously said, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.”
With all this in mind… where’s the opportunity here?
Homebuilder stocks are a great option to consider. If there aren’t enough existing homes for sale, buyers will have to turn to new ones.
In the Power Gauge, we can track this corner of the market through the SPDR S&P Homebuilders Fund (XHB). As its name implies, it’s an exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) that holds a basket of homebuilder stocks.
Right now, the Power Gauge gives XHB a “bullish” rating. And of its 34 holdings with ratings, the fund has more with “bullish” or better grades than “neutral” and “bearish” or worse ones. Take a look at this screenshot from our system…
As always, the Power Gauge gives us plenty of things to look at.
On the upside, we’ll want to see if demand for housing remains strong. On the downside, we’ll want to keep an eye on demand falling off… or interest rates going back up.
But at least for now, the desire to own a home remains strong…
A survey by Bankrate earlier this year found that 88% of Baby Boomers see home ownership as part of the American Dream. Meanwhile, 83% of Gen X respondents feel the same way. So do 71% of millennials and 68% of Gen Z folks.
That’s a lot of people… and for a long time to come.
Good investing,
Joe Austin
