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The Recession Goalposts Moved Once Again

When the goalposts keep moving, it’s easy to get confused… First, the Federal Reserve told us that inflation would be “transitory.” Next, the Fed started saying that inflation really wasn’t as bad as the government’s own official data showed. It tried to tell us other metrics showed something different. And now, the federal government is …

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We’re Seeing 2012 Netflix Again… But Only Halfway

Netflix (NFLX) shareholders breathed a sigh of relief last Wednesday… The stock jumped more than 7% that day. The big move higher happened after the video-streaming giant said it lost only 970,000 subscribers in the second quarter. Now, in most cases, losing almost 1 million subscribers in a quarter would set off alarm bells. But …

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Don’t Let Excel Spoil Your Corn Flakes

Sometimes, Microsoft Excel spreadsheets do more harm than good… About a month ago, Kellogg (K) announced a plan to split itself into three independent, publicly traded companies. These three businesses will cover breakfast cereals, snack foods, and plant-based foods. When companies announce plans like that, most Wall Street analysts turn to Excel… First, they plug …

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The ‘Most Expensive Sport in Investing’ Is Too Popular Right Now

A new, worrying narrative is popping up in the financial media… In short, many so-called experts have started recommending “bottom fishing.” Bottom-fishing is exactly what it sounds like. It’s the practice of buying supposedly cheap and beaten-up companies in hopes that they’ll turn around and lead you to profits. But of course, it doesn’t always …

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Russia Is Playing a Dangerous Game With Natural Gas

Gazprom took an extraordinary step last week… In short, the majority state-owned Russian energy company said it would use “force majeure” to stop natural gas flows to Germany. The term “force majeure” is in most contracts under the name of an “Act of God” clause. And if executed, it relieves the party of its contract …

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Beware the Recent Bounce in Bond Funds

If you’re a chart junkie like I am, you might’ve noticed a significant bounce recently… In short, government bonds rallied off their mid-June lows. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) is up roughly 7% from its June 14 low. That’s a big move for a long-duration exchange-traded fund (“ETF”). Shorter-duration government-bond ETFs like …

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